Concept

The War in Ukraine and the impact on the Europe and Black Sea Security in partnership with Körber Foundation, Germany

• The security of the Black Sea region depends on the outcome of the war in Ukraine. Do you expect a diplomatic resolution of the war this year? Is a diplomatic solution still possible in 2026, especially given that negotiations to end the war in Ukraine no longer seem to be a priority for the United States?
• Even if we have a ceasefire or a peace agreement, Russia will most likely continue to use multiple hybrid tools to exert pressure on Black Sea states, to affect freedom of navigation, as well as energy and connectivity projects. How will the Black Sea littoral states cooperate to address these threats? How is Germany, for example, involved, bilaterally or at the EU and NATO level, in contributing to the deterrence of Russia’s actions in the Black Sea?
• How can Ukraine become an asset within European strategic thinking? How is Ukraine’s role seen in the future European security landscape?
• In December 2021, before launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia demanded the withdrawal of NATO military infrastructure from states that joined the Alliance after 1997 and a veto right over security matters in this space. How will European and Black Sea security look in relation to Russia, which will remain a neighbor to the EU and NATO and a Black Sea littoral state with significant military power?

From the Strait of Hormuz to the Ankara Summit. The Transatlantic Link Under Pressure – in partnership with Atlantic Council, USA

• President Trump has been highly critical of European allies, and we may see a withdrawal of U.S. troops from countries such as Spain or Germany. In this tense transatlantic context, what realistic expectations should we have from the NATO summit in Ankara?
• Could Vladimir Putin exploit the U.S. lack of interest in European security and launch an action against a NATO state on the Eastern Flank in order to demonstrate that Article 5 no longer works and that NATO is a “paper tiger”?
• Is alliance burden-sharing and military recalibration enough to restore credibility to Article 5?

Frozen Peace or Fair Peace? Scenarios for Ending the War in Ukraine – in partnership with Elcano Royal Institute, Spain

• How do “frozen conflict” scenarios compare with comprehensive peace agreements in terms of long-term regional stability?
• Can the United States still pressure Ukraine to accept territorial concessions, as requested by Russia based on the understandings reached with the U.S. side at the Alaska summit in August 2025? Could the United States recognize Crimea as Russian territory as a concession to make it easier for Russia to accept a peace agreement?
• What are the actual prospects for solid security guarantees for Ukraine? What role should be played by the US and Europe?
• How can European states carve a more proactive role for themselves within peace negotiations, considering that they have been sidelined by the US and Russia?
• For Russia, the real stake of the war in Ukraine is the redesign of Europe’s security architecture. What will European security look like at the end of the peace process in Ukraine? How involved will the United States remain in Europe, and what will the relationship between Europe and Russia look like?

The Frozen Conflict in Transnistria and the Impact on Black Sea Security

• How has the war in Ukraine transformed the strategic relevance of Transnistria within the broader Black Sea security architecture?
• How vulnerable is Moldova to hybrid pressure linked to the Transnistrian conflict, including energy coercion, disinformation, and political destabilization?
• What role does Transnistria play in Russia’s broader strategy of maintaining leverage in the Black Sea region and post-Soviet space?
• Under what conditions could Russia activate the 2006 referendum and annex Transnistria, effectively creating a second Kaliningrad in Europe?
• How have recent developments in Moldova’s EU accession process altered the strategic calculus around the conflict?

Air and Space Battlefield: How We Can Create our A2/AD Umbrella? The Future of Integrated Defence

• What does an effective anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) umbrella look like in an era where air and space systems are highly networked, contested, and transparent?
• How have recent developments in hypersonic weapons, space-based ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance), and long-range precision fires altered the calculus of air-space denial?
• What institutional and doctrinal barriers currently slow the creation of genuinely integrated, cross-domain A2/AD capabilities within NATO frameworks?
• In what ways do threats in space, including anti-satellite weapons and electronic warfare, affect the protection of critical command, navigation, and communication nodes?
• What risks arise when critical military communications depend on privately owned space infrastructure subject to corporate and political influence, such as Starlink?

Unlocking the Black Sea: Offshore Energy Resources and the Future of European Supply – in partnership with Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies (EDAM), Türkiye

• To what extent can offshore energy resources in the Black Sea meaningfully contribute to Europe’s long-term energy security and diversification goals?
• What are the current risks of Russian hybrid actions against Black Sea offshore energy projects?
• How can littoral states cooperate in order to better protect critical energy infrastructure?
• Ukraine’s reconstruction process will also involve cooperation in the energy sector. How can offshore cooperation projects with Ukraine in the Black Sea be developed, taking into account the experience that Romania and Türkiye are gaining from major projects such as Neptun Deep and Sakarya?

Challenges and Opportunities in the Reconstruction of Ukraine: Romania’s Role in this Strategic Project – in partnership with Konrad Adenauer Stiftung, Germany

• What are the main structural challenges in Ukraine’s reconstruction, from security risks to governance and financing, and how can they be addressed in parallel?
• How can Romania position itself as a key logistical and economic hub for Ukraine’s reconstruction, particularly through its ports, infrastructure, and proximity, especially for the southern regions of Ukraine that have been heavily affected by the war?
• Germany is a Danubian country, and the most cost-effective and environmentally friendly connection between Germany and southern Ukraine can be achieved via the Danube. The Romanian ports of Galați and Brăila, Moldova’s port of Giurgiulești, and Ukraine’s ports of Reni and Izmail could form a major logistics hub to support the reconstruction of southern Ukraine and connect Germany with Ukraine and the Black Sea. What role will Germany play in such large-scale logistics and connectivity projects? What is Germany’s economic interest in this strategic triangle—Romania, Ukraine, and the Republic of Moldova—from the perspective of Ukraine’s reconstruction process?
• How might reconstruction serve as a catalyst for Ukraine’s EU accession process and broader economic transformation?
• What opportunities does reconstruction create for reshaping Ukraine’s economy, including green energy, digital infrastructure, and industrial modernization, and how can Romania benefit from this transformation?

Rare Earths Black Sea Region Potential and the Strategic Impact at Global Level – in partnership with Energy Policy Group, Romania

• To what extent can the Black Sea region realistically contribute to diversifying European and even global rare earth and critical minerals supply chains?
• What political, regulatory, and infrastructural barriers currently limit the region’s ability to develop its critical raw materials potential?
• How does competition with major global suppliers, particularly China, shape strategic choices in the region?
• Ukraine’s reconstruction will also involve the development and exploitation of the country’s natural resources. There is an agreement between the United States and Ukraine regarding the exploitation of rare earth metals—an important step not only for the bilateral economic relationship between the U.S. and Ukraine, but also for U.S. involvement in providing security guarantees to Ukraine. Can American companies become involved in Ukraine in the absence of a peace agreement? Or will they focus more on neighboring countries until the war ends?
• How should Romania and neighboring states position themselves within European industrial and technological strategies linked to rare earths?

Investments in the Blur Security Environment. Challenges and Opportunities

• How is the increasingly blurred boundary between security and economics reshaping investment risk assessments in Europe and Romania?
• How have recent geopolitical shocks, including the Ukraine war and regional instability, such as the political crisis in Romania, altered capital flows, insurance costs, and financing conditions for infrastructure and energy projects in Eastern Europe and beyond?
• What role should governments play in de-risking strategic investments in sectors exposed to security threats, such as energy, transport, and critical infrastructure?
• How can financial institutions integrate geopolitical and hybrid risk into lending, portfolio management, and due-diligence frameworks?

The Danube Corridor: Strategic Artery for Infrastructure and Security in Europe – in partnership with Pupin Initiative, Serbia

• How has the Danube’s role as a transport and logistics corridor evolved in response to shifting security and economic priorities in Europe, particularly after 2022? Connectivity, food security, military mobility.
• What infrastructural bottlenecks and governance gaps currently limit the corridor’s full potential?
• Germany is a Danubian country. Through the Danube, Germany can be much closer to the Black Sea—the region from which it will begin importing gas starting in 2027, from Romania. In practical terms, Germany’s energy security will also depend on Romanian gas from the Black Sea. How can the Danube contribute to reshaping German strategic thinking, which is currently more focused on the Baltic region?
• How vulnerable is the Danube corridor to hybrid threats, cyberattacks, and physical disruption? Let us remember Russia’s 2025 attack, involving a naval drone against a Ukrainian vessel on the Danube Delta, an incident that demonstrated Russia’s ability to conduct operations against port infrastructure on the Danube, not just against Black Sea ports.
• How should environmental protection and climate adaptation be integrated into strategic planning for the corridor?

Land Forces in the Era of Drones and Loitering Munitions

• How have drones and loitering munitions fundamentally altered the balance between mobility, concealment, and firepower on the battlefield?
• To what extent have traditional concepts of maneuver warfare and force concentration become obsolete under persistent aerial surveillance?
• How can ground forces restore tactical surprise and operational flexibility in drone-saturated battlespaces?
• To what extent does the proliferation of low-cost precision strike systems alter the offense-defense balance of modern warfare?

Power, Pressure, and Succession: Exploring Russia’s Leadership Scenarios

• Given President Vladimir Putin’s age and the constitutional extension that could keep him in power until 2036, how plausible are managed succession scenarios versus abrupt or contested transitions?
• What are the most credible elite succession scenarios in Russia’s security-state environment, from conservative continuity within the siloviki to negotiated elite replacements?
• How real is the risk of a confrontation between a NATO country and Russia? Could Russia attack a Baltic state now, taking advantage of the U.S. lack of interest in Europe and President Trump’s repeated criticism of NATO, which seems to invite Putin to act?
• What early-warning indicators should policymakers monitor to anticipate the timing, nature, and stability of a leadership transition in Russia?
• In four years, Russia’s economy has become a war economy. Militarism now characterizes Russian society, the education system, and everyday life. How difficult is it for Putin to stop the war now, in a society where civil rights have been curtailed to prevent opposition to the war in Ukraine, and where the war has become a source of income, especially in poorer regions?

Enlargement Meets Geopolitics: The Accession Process of Ukraine and Moldova and the Western Balkans Experience – in partnership with Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI), Italy

• To what extent has EU enlargement shifted from a normative integration process to a geopolitical instrument of influence and stabilization?
• How credible are current accession timelines for Ukraine, Moldova, and the Western Balkans in light of institutional and political constraints within the EU? How significant is the risk of the ”enlargement fatigue” in Ukraine and Moldova if the accession process takes longer than the leaders in Kyiv and Chișinău expect?
• What useful lessons can Moldova and Ukraine draw from the lengthy accession negotiations of the Western Balkan states to the EU?
• How can conditionality be maintained without undermining political momentum and public support in candidate countries?
• How does ongoing conflict and unresolved territorial disputes affect the logic and legitimacy of accession processes, particularly in Ukraine and Moldova?
• Could the scenario of the reunification of the Republic of Moldova with Romania serve as a “fast track” for EU accession, in case the process stalls or Russia moves militarily closer to Moldova’s borders?

Sea Denial and Anti-Access in Confined and Shallow Waters. Creating a Robust Costal Defence Using Lessons from Ukraine

• Ukraine had managed to keep the Russian Black Sea Fleet in check without a Navy. What lessons from Ukraine’s use of coastal missiles, naval drones, and asymmetric tactics are most relevant for sea denial in confined waters?
• To what extent can smaller coastal states deter superior naval forces through layered anti-access asymmetric strategies?
• What role do intelligence, reconnaissance, and maritime domain awareness play in sustaining effective sea denial?
• How can lessons from Ukraine be institutionalized into doctrine, training, and joint exercises across the Alliance?
• What strategic and military realities are unique to the Black Sea, generated by its geographical features?
• Can Ukraine’s s asymmetric approach be replicated in other enclosed or semi-enclosed seas, such as the Baltic Sea, the Mediterranean Sea, the Red Sea, or the Persian Gulf?

From the Gulf to Global Security: The Iran War’s Shockwaves – in partnership with Centre for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), USA

• What are the global consequences of the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil flows, for energy markets, inflation, and political stability?
• In Tehran, the theocratic regime has not been changed, and a new, much younger generation is now in power. Iran’s military capabilities could be rebuilt with the help of Russia and China, including in the area of ballistic capabilities. Iran has not abandoned its nuclear program. Arab states have realized that, despite hosting U.S. bases on their territory, they can still be targeted by Iranian missiles and drones. How long will the ceasefire last, given that none of the issues that led the United States and Israel to strike Iran have actually been resolved?
• Around 12% of China’s oil comes from Iran, while about 5% was previously imported from Venezuela. China compensates for disruptions in its supply by increasing imports from Russia, which further strengthens the relationship between Beijing and Moscow. How can the United States decouple Russia from China?
• Could Russia become an ally of the United States in resolving the crisis in the Gulf? Could Russia take over Iran’s enriched uranium, helping the U.S. stop Iran’s nuclear program? What concessions might the United States offer Russia in exchange for such assistance?

Warfighting Readiness: From Factories to Frontlines. The Impact of SAFE Programe – in partnership with Defence 24, Poland

• How effectively are Europe and NATO bridging the gap between industrial production capacity and battlefield demand, particularly in munitions, ammunition, and heavy equipment?
• What lessons learned from the Ukrainian battlefield should be adapted by European industry?
• To what extent have recent EU instruments like the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) and the European Defence Industry Programme (EDIP) improved readiness by expanding production lines and shortening delivery times?
• How might a failure to synchronize industrial output, logistics, and frontline demand affect deterrence credibility and readiness for large-scale contingency operations?
• Poland and Romania, the largest states on NATO’s Eastern Flank, have accessed the largest amounts under the SAFE program. Can the expansion of the industrial base become a deterrence tool, as important as military mobility or the development of infrastructure needed to host allied troops?

War, Weather and the World’s Breadbasket.  Black Sea’s Role in Food Security Amid Conflict and Climate Stress – in partnership with University of Agronomic Sciences and Veterinary Medicine (USAMV), Romania

• How has the war in Ukraine transformed the Black Sea from a commercial artery into a strategic vulnerability in global food systems?
• To what extent can climate change amplify existing security risks linked to agricultural production and trade in the region?
• Black Sea international cooperation formats have been paralyzed since the war in Ukraine began. How can cooperation between security actors, agricultural experts, and international institutions be institutionalized to prevent future food crises?
• Agriculture is one of the most complex chapters for Ukraine in the EU accession negotiations. How will the European Union be able to integrate Ukraine’s agricultural sector while addressing the concerns of farmers in countries such as France, Poland, or Romania? How difficult will it be for Ukraine to meet all the necessary requirements to close this chapter of the negotiations?

Decoupling or Deepening? The future of America and Europe Relations in the Era of Pragmatism – in partnership with Hudson Institute, USA

• To what extent is the transatlantic relationship shifting from values-based partnership to interest-driven pragmatism? Can Europe maintain meaningful ties to Washington by shifting its approach accordingly?
• Central and Eastern Europe still remembers the traumas of great power agreements in the 20th century: the Munich Agreement of 1938, the Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact of 1939, and the Yalta Agreement of 1945. Is there a fear that a new such arrangement could emerge, with the United States and Russia once again dividing spheres of influence in Europe? Is this fear entirely unjustified?
• How much would the withdrawal of U.S. troops from certain European countries affect the transatlantic relationship? Could this encourage even more aggressive behavior from Putin, potentially leading to actions combining military and hybrid elements in order to demonstrate that Article 5 does not work and that the United States would not come to the aid of a European ally?
• In the event of a Russian aggression against a European NATO member state—whether Poland, Romania, or Estonia—will the United States fulfill its obligations as an ally, or will it leave Europeans to handle the situation on their own?
• What risks does excessive transactionalism pose for alliance cohesion and crisis response?

From the Levant to the Black Sea: Strategic Reverberations of Middle East Crises – in partnership with Candid Foundation, Germany

• Gaza, Lebanon, Iran, multiple crises that overlap and reinforce one another. What are the effects of these crises on the stability of Europe, including the Black Sea region?
• Is a diplomatic solution in Gaza still possible in the current Middle Eastern context? Are there still credible mediators at this point?
• Could an Iran that is able to continue its nuclear program and rebuild its military potential seek revenge against Israel? What will Iran’s network of proxies in the Middle East look like in the coming years? How will theyaffect the security of Israel, Lebanon, and Syria?
• The Black Sea Fleet was referred to as the “Syrian Express,” playing an important role in providing logistical support to the Russian contingent in Syria. The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, a key ally of Russia, along with the destruction of 40% of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet by Ukraine, has limited Russia’s room for maneuver in the region. How influential is Russia now in the Levant?
• Israel and Türkiye are two important allies of the United States. However, tensions between the two countries run deep, and the current dynamics are not encouraging. What would a compromise in the relationship between Israel and Türkiye look like in the current international context?

Russia’s Military Transformation and Modern Warfare – in partnership with New Geopolitics Research Network, Ukraine

• How has Russia integrated lessons from battlefield failures into procurement, training, and operational planning?
• The development of unmanned technologies was a prominent outcome of the war in Ukraine. What does the drone–artillery relationship in Ukraine tell us about the future balance between industrial mass and technological improvisation in warfare?
• Does Russia have solutions to counter Ukraine’s strategy of creating an increasingly expanded “killing zone” that effectively neutralizes Russia’s superiority in manpower, artillery, and armored vehicles?
• To what extent does Russia’s military transformation depend on external partnerships, informal supply networks, and third-party actors?
• What continuities from Soviet and post-Soviet military traditions remain visible in Russia’s current approach to warfare?

Russian Hybrid Warfare in Europe.  – in partnership with Institute for European Policies and Reforms, Republic of Moldova

• The Republic of Moldova has been the prime target of Russian hybrid interference. In spite of that, Chisianu managed to maintain its European trajectory. How can European states facing the same issues integrate Moldovan insights?
• What hybrid warfare tools has Russia most consistently employed in Moldova, and how have they evolved since the war in Ukraine?
• What role does the Transnistrian frozen conflict play in sustaining long-term strategic leverage?
• How has Romania’s political, economic, and security assistance contributed to strengthening Moldova’s resilience against hybrid threats?
• Romania has been the target of significant interference from Russia during elections. Is Romania now better prepared to deal with similar challenges in future elections?

The Battlefield of Societal Resilience.  From Ukrainian War Time Model to European Society in the Era of Full-Scale Hybrid Warfare – in partnership with Institute for Liberty and Democracy, Romania

• In four years of war, Ukraine has demonstrated not only an extraordinary capacity for military resilience, but also an admirable determination across society to fight and endure. How can Ukraine’s experience be used by European Union states? How can civil protection services benefit from the experience of their Ukrainian counterparts, and what lessons can be learned?
• How can the Nordic model of civilian preparedness for disasters and war be integrated? Beyond financial investments, how is the dialogue between authorities and citizens conducted, and how are communities mobilized to contribute to a national defense effort?
• How have disinformation narratives and influence operations leveraged grassroots platforms and social movements to amplify polarization and weaken democratic cohesion?
• What vulnerabilities in civil society ecosystems, including funding dependence and regulatory gaps, create openings for hostile influence?
• Ukraine’s resilience also means the resilience of its healthcare system, its education system, and the ability to maintain services even in heavily bombed cities. Is Europe now better prepared from all these perspectives? Scandinavian countries have invested significant resources in preparing their populations to cope with extreme situations.
• How can democratic states counter foreign manipulation of civil society without undermining legitimate activism and freedom of association or freedom of speach?

Alliance Solidarity and Common Threat Perception. From Hague  to Ankara NATO Summits – in partnership with the Chairman of the Munich Security Conference, Germany

• To what extent do NATO members still share a common understanding of the primary threats facing the Alliance?
• How have recent NATO summits reflected shifts in priorities between the eastern flank, southern neighborhood, and global challenges?
• To what degree has burden-sharing evolved from a financial debate into a broader question of strategic responsibility?
• Can NATO adapt its strategic narrative to sustain public support across diverse societies?
• President Trump has repeatedly stated that Presidents Obama and Biden were too aggressive toward Russia and pushed it closer to China. Will President Trump succeed in decoupling Russia from China, or is it more likely that Putin will succeed in decoupling the United States from Europe?

Between Peace and War. The Blurred Face of Modern Conflict – in partnership with the Council on Geostrategy, UK

• How has the distinction between war and peace eroded in contemporary strategic competition, particularly through hybrid operations and deniable force?
• How do cyberattacks, economic coercion, and disinformation campaigns combine to create sustained pressure without triggering collective defence mechanisms?
• How have recent maritime and air incidents involving NATO and Russian forces demonstrated the risks of inadvertent escalation in ambiguous conflict environments?
• How should alliances adapt deterrence frameworks to address persistent, low-intensity coercion rather than discrete acts of aggression?

Voluntary but Vital. Coalition of Willing for Ukraine – in partnership with London School of Economics IDEAS, UK

• What security guarantees could deter Russia from attacking again and provide Ukraine with the certainty that a future peace agreement will not become another Budapest Memorandum?
• How can domestic political changes in key states within the Coalition of the Willing affect the reliability and credibility of long-term guarantees for Ukraine?
• Given its proximity to Ukraine, a Coalition of the Willing cannot function without Poland and Romania. Moreover, Romania has an additional responsibility in the Black Sea regarding the monitoring of a peace agreement, alongside Türkiye and Bulgaria. What would be the impact of political destabilization in Romania on the success of such a Coalition of the Willing and on support for Ukraine?
• Russia has repeatedly spoken out against the deployment of European troops in Ukraine, especially from NATO or EU member states. How will Ukraine and the West overcome Russia’s opposition? What will be the status of foreign troops deployed in Ukraine?
• What missions will the troops deployed in Ukraine have, and what will their mandate be in the event that Russia violates the peace agreement? How can we prevent a situation similar to that of 1995 in Srebrenica, when Dutch troops deployed in Bosnia were unable to prevent the massacre of Bosnian Muslims?

AI, Cyber & Disruptive Tech Threat Amplification: Building a Resilient Technology and Security Ecosystem in the Black Sea Region – in partnership with National Cyber Security Directorate, Romania

• How is the integration of AI into cybersecurity systems reshaping threat detection, response times, and crisis management capacities?
• What institutional and regulatory gaps currently hinder effective cross-border cybersecurity cooperation in the Black Sea region?
• What role should Romania play in shaping regional standards, training frameworks, and incident-response mechanisms?
• How can cybersecurity cooperation be integrated more effectively into wider NATO and EU security architectures?

From Wind and Solar to Green Hydrogen: The Future of Sustainable Energy in Europe and the Impact in the Black Sea Region

• What role can offshore wind play in Europe’s long-term energy transition strategy, and how does it fit into the EU’s broader targets for renewable generation by 2030 and 2050?
• How can the Black Sea’s offshore wind potential be harnessed strategically to enhance energy security and reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels in Southeast Europe?
• What impact can renewable energy projects have on the reconstruction process of Ukraine?
• How can cross-border cooperation in renewables and hydrogen infrastructure, such as linking production in the Black Sea to European markets, strengthen regional energy integration?
• How can lessons from leading European offshore wind markets (e.g., North Sea and Baltic projects) be translated into effective policy frameworks and industrial strategies for the Black Sea region?

Borderlines and Battlelines: Assessing Regional Security in the Caucasus – in partnership with Delphi Global Research Center, USA

• How have recent conflicts in the South Caucasus reshaped regional power balances and security perceptions?
• How do Russia, Türkiye, Iran, and Western actors compete and cooperate in shaping Caucasus security dynamics?
• To what extent does growing Chinese economic engagement affect regional security calculations?
• What scenarios could most plausibly destabilize the region in the coming decade, and how can they be mitigated?

Connectivity Corridors, Maritime Checkpoints, and Global Stakes. Maintaining Open Seas from the Black Sea to the South China Sea – in partnership with The Heritage Foundation, USA

• Freedom of navigation is being challenged by Russia in the Black Sea, by Iran in the Persian Gulf, and by China in the South China Sea. How can the United States, NATO and EU European states, and Japan cooperate to maintain strategic communication corridors and freedom of navigation?
• Maintaining strategic corridors open for trade and military mobility requires a military presence at various key points. On the one hand, the United States has an interest in maintaining a military presence in certain strategic locations around the globe; on the other hand, we are seeing announcements about the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Europe. Europe represents a platform for projecting American power toward other strategic regions, such as the Arctic, the Caucasus and Central Asia, Africa, or the Middle East. Does this recalibration of the U.S. military presence in Europe not contradict its strategic interests?
• The Black Sea ensures connectivity between the Danube corridor and Central Asia, as well as between the Baltic Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean. By retaining Crimea, Russia can control the Black Sea. Could the current Trump administration recognize Crimea as Russian territory during negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, with all the legal consequences that would stem from such a decision?
• Without connectivity, we cannot speak about the development of major business projects. How can the private sector contribute to maintaining open spaces for trade and investment in the context of rising geopolitical tensions?
• How can Japan contribute to maintaining open corridors between Asia and Europe, and what are Japan’s strategic interests when it comes to connectivity and freedom of navigation?
• Central Asia means energy resources, rare metals, and a space of vital interest for Russia, China, the United States, and Europe. How can Kazakhstan maintain a balance between all these powers, which often have conflicting interests?

Energy Corridors and the Impact on European Security – in partnership with the Delphi Economic Forum, Greece

• How have Russia’s weaponization of gas supplies and the disruption of traditional east–west routes since 2022 reshaped Europe’s strategic approach to energy corridors?
• What security implications arise from the growing importance of the Vertical Gas Corridor and Caspian–Black Sea–Mediterranean energy routes for European diversification?
• How might the emergence of green hydrogen and electricity interconnection corridors transform Europe’s energy geopolitics and dependencies?
• What role can EU initiatives such as Global Gateway and Trans-European Networks for Energy (TEN-E) play in securing and financing strategic corridors?

The Fight for Truth in the Era of Alternative Media and Deepfake Technology

• What role should journalists, educators, and civil society play in strengthening media literacy and critical thinking in the digital age?
• What concrete tools or technologies (AI detection systems, watermarking, content authentication protocols) can help identify and counter deepfake content at scale?
• What practical strategies can be implemented by platforms and public institutions to respond rapidly to viral misinformation during high-stakes events (elections, conflicts, crises)?
• How can democratic states adapt in order to win the cognitive war against authoritarian states, where decisions are made quickly and implementation mechanisms are often faster?

Black Swans in the Black Sea: Anticipating the Unthinkable – in partnership with Sofia Security Forum, Bulgaria

• The speakers will each present a “black swan” scenario, as described by them in the book Black Swans in the Black Sea, published by the New Strategy Center on the occasion of this year’s edition of the Black Sea and Balkans Security Forum.
• What events or dynamics in the Black Sea region, whether military, environmental, or economic, could qualify as “Black Swan” shocks in the coming decade, and how can actors prepare for them?
• What are the strategic and economic implications if Russia or other actors severely disrupt Black Sea maritime infrastructure, including pipelines, undersea cables, or critical energy projects such as Romania’s offshore gas developments?
• Could the proliferation of naval drone swarms or autonomous systems create operational behaviors that neither warfare planners nor AI designers anticipate, potentially leading to escalation?

Europe’s Nuclear Umbrella. From Transatlantic Assurance to European Ambitions – in partnership with Institute for European Perspective and Security, France

• To what extent has the war in Ukraine reshaped European perceptions of nuclear deterrence, escalation risks, and extended deterrence guarantees?
• What are the strategic implications of renewed debates on European nuclear autonomy, particularly regarding the potential role of France’s nuclear deterrent?
• How might uncertainty around future U.S. commitments, including shifting political priorities, affect European confidence in extended nuclear deterrence?
• What institutional and doctrinal challenges would arise from any attempt to “Europeanize” nuclear deterrence within or alongside NATO frameworks?
• The lack of timely support for Ukraine in the first two years of the war (referring to the delays between Ukraine’s requests for missiles, F-16s, or tanks and the Vest decisions to their delivery to the Ukraine) was it driven by fears that a Ukrainian victory could destabilize Russia internally? Is it preferable to deal with a single leader in Russia, rather than with multiple local leaders, each potentially controlling nuclear capabilities?

Weapons of Russian Informational Warfare 

• How have Russian information operations evolved from traditional propaganda to coordinated cognitive warfare that aims not only to persuade but to disrupt, fracture, and paralyse audiences across Europe and NATO societies?
• What are the principal tactics and platforms currently used by Moscow to spread disinformation in Western public spaces, including fake news sites and social-media amplification networks?
• In Europe, we are witnessing intense campaigns promoting “peace at any cost” in Ukraine, which in reality means supporting a peace under any conditions, including territorial concessions by Ukraine and other compromises, effectively amounting to Ukraine’s capitulation. How can we counter such narratives, which exploit ”war fatigue” in Europe and the rhetoric of sovereigntist and anti-EU parties?
• In what ways has Russia targeted EU member states differently, tailoring narratives about energy, corruption, and national politics, to weaken support for Ukraine and amplify domestic divisions?

War of Attrition and Large-Scale Combat. Where is the Place of Special Operation Forces?

• How has the return of large-scale, high-intensity warfare challenged traditional assumptions about the role of Special Operations Forces?
• What lessons from Ukraine and other recent conflicts suggest limits to SOF effectiveness in protracted wars?
• How should resource allocation between elite units and mass forces be recalibrated under conditions of industrial warfare?

Baltic and Black Sea Security From Kaliningrad to Crimea. Two Seas, One Strategy! – in partnership with Warsaw Security Forum, Poland

• How do the militarization and A2/AD capabilities in Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave and Crimea shape NATO’s deterrence and defence planning in both the Baltic and Black Sea theatres?
• What operational implications arise from the growing intensity of Russian naval and air activity in the Baltic Sea, where any incident at sea or in the air could have immediate strategic consequences?
• How can alliance doctrine integrate lessons from Operation Eastern Sentry, NATO’s recent deterrent posture along its eastern flank, into a coherent two-sea defence approach that addresses both kinetic and hybrid threats?
• To what extent does the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO alter strategic calculations in the Baltic Sea and create a more interconnected defence posture that could influence Black Sea planning?

It’s A Long Way to Tipperary! Challenges for Military Mobility in the Modern Warfare – in partnership with the Association of the United States Army – Romania

• To what extent do infrastructure limitations undermine NATO’s ability to implement its defense plans in Europe? What about the Black Sea region, specifically?
• How can civilian transport networks be better integrated into military planning?
• Can the Danube be better utilized for Romania’s military mobility and that of NATO allies, as well as for a potential Coalition of the Willing operating in Ukraine?
• What investments and policy reforms are most urgently needed to ensure credible mobility capabilities?

Defense through Infrastructure: From Military Bases to Dual-Use Infrastructure

• How has the war in Ukraine reshaped European understanding of infrastructure as a core component of military readiness and deterrence?
• What critical gaps exist in transport, energy, and digital infrastructure that currently limit rapid force mobility across Europe?
• How can cooperation between defense authorities, local governments, and private operators be institutionalized?
• How vulnerable are Europe’s logistics corridors and hubs to hybrid, cyber, and physical disruption?

The Strategic Triangle of the IMEC, Three Seas Initiative and Danube Corridor – in partnership with IRMO, Croatia

• What geopolitical objectives underlie the launch of the IMEC corridor, and how does it intersect with European connectivity strategies toward the Black Sea and Eastern Europe?
• How has the Three Seas Initiative evolved from an infrastructure platform into a geopolitical instrument strengthening Central and Eastern Europe’s strategic autonomy?
• What is the role of the Danube for IMEC and the Three Seas Initiative in connecting Western Europe with Central Asia via the Black Sea?
• What vulnerabilities, such as ongoing geopolitical conflicts, in the case of IMEC, or other local aspects, could disrupt the integration of these corridors into a coherent European network?

AI in Cybersecurity: The Dual-Use Dilemma 

• How is AI simultaneously lowering the barriers to cyberattacks and strengthening defensive capabilities?
• To what extent does the rapid diffusion of AI tools blur the distinction between state and non-state cyber capabilities?
• To what degree does dependence on commercial AI platforms expose national cybersecurity strategies to external influence?

Why the Arctic Matters: Strategic Challenges for the Transatlantic World – in partnership with Institute for the Norwegian Institute of International Relation (NUPI), Norway

• How do changing maritime conditions, including new shipping routes as ice retreats, impact European defence planning and commercial interests in the High North?
• A conflict between the U.S. and Europe over Greenland have suddenly become thinkable, not ”a black swan” scenario. How can we manage these tensions in order to maintain the transatlantic link, in a manner that is both politically productive and narratively efficient?
• How has Russia’s military posture in the Arctic changed over the past four years, since the start of the invasion of Ukraine? Could Russia test Article 5 in Svalbard through a hybrid action, betting above all on the assumption that the United States would not come to the aid of a European ally in the event of a major security crisis?
• How should NATO respond to recent moves such as the beginning of military planning for an Arctic Sentry mission amid tensions over Greenland, and what does this signal about collective defense priorities?

Reinforcing the NATO and EU’ s Defence Technological and Industrial Base

• How can the newly adopted European Defence Industrial Programme (EDIP) be operationalised to strengthen the European Defence Technological and Industrial Base (EDTIB) and support collaborative procurement across member states?
• What role does the European Defence Industrial Strategy (EDIS) play as a strategic blueprint for boosting cooperation, innovation, and industrial capacity in defence sectors across the EU until 2035?
• How should procurement processes be reformed to reduce fragmentation and encourage collaborative development of key capabilities, especially in areas like unmanned systems, air defence, and secure communications?
• How can EU programmes balance security-of-supply requirements with openness to innovation and partnership with non-EU technology firms without creating strategic bottlenecks?

From Strategy to Action. A Road Map for the EU Black Sea Strategy – in partnership with German Council of Foreign Relations (DGAP), Germany

• What concrete mechanisms and timelines should underpin the transition from the EU’s Strategic Approach to the Black Sea region, as outlined in the May 2025 Joint Communication, to a full operational strategy with measurable outcomes?
• How can flagship initiatives such as the proposed Black Sea Maritime Security Hub, designed to enhance situational awareness and monitoring, be translated into sustained, interoperable action with partners?
• The EU Maritime Security Hub in the Black Sea will play a vital role in maintaining freedom of navigation. Ukraine’s reconstruction is impossible without ensuring freedom of navigation in the Black Sea, which would provide Ukraine with secure export routes and a steady flow of equipment and materials needed for rebuilding the country. How will countries such as Ukraine and Türkiy, without which a successful mission to protect freedom of navigation cannot be envisioned, be integrated into this hub?
• France is the framework nation of the NATO battlegroup in Romania. Starting in 2027, Germany will begin importing gas from the Black Sea, from Romania’s offshore fields. Will France and Germany come more involved in efforts to protect critical energy infrastructure in the Black Sea and to maintain freedom of navigation, including through participation in the Maritime Security Hub?

Digital Battlefields: Data, AI, and Emerging Threats. From Data Management to Information Superiority

• How are modern battlefields being reshaped by the explosion of combat data, and what organizational changes are needed to turn raw data into operational advantage?
• To what extent does the rise of AI-assisted targeting and predictive analytics change command decision cycles, and what governance models are necessary to prevent automated escalation?
• The battlefield is increasingly characterized by the presence of a vast number of sensors providing diverse real-time information in massive volumes. The ability to process this data, interpret it, and rapidly turn it into decisions makes the difference between victory and failure. This is increasingly evident on the battlefield in Ukraine. How are the Romanian armed forces and NATO forces adapting to this major challenge, which brings together cutting-edge ISR technologies, artificial intelligence, and advanced command-and-control systems?
• What role do private tech companies play in defence ecosystems, from cloud providers to AI developers, and how can alliances manage dependencies without undermining innovation?

From Promise to Pressure: Article 5 and the Future of Transatlantic Solidarity

• In light of recent internal rifts, including public doubts about U.S. commitment and political tensions over Greenland, how resilient is transatlantic solidarity at a moment when adversaries may see cracks as opportunities?
• Before the launch of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, there had long been differing threat perceptions within NATO. Countries on NATO’s Eastern Flank consistently warned about the Russian threat, even though many Western countries viewed these warnings as exaggerated. States on NATO’s Southern Flank considered threats such as terrorism and instability in North Africa and the Middle East to be more serious for their security. Four years after the invasion of Ukraine, is there now a common perception of threats within NATO? Is Russia now seen as a danger capable of launching kinetic attacks in the Baltic states and hybrid actions in southern countries, through cyberattacks or sustained pressure via the Russian Africa Corps, present in many African states?
• What does the historic commitment by NATO Allies to increase defence spending to 5% of GDP by 2035 signal about the willingness to translate the Article 5 promise into concrete capabilities?
• How might debates over European strategic autonomy, including proposals for EU defence initiatives, interact with or complement the NATO Article 5 framework?
• How credible is NATO’s nuclear umbrella in an era of political volatility and strategic uncertainty, particularly regarding long-term U.S. commitments? What are we to expect from debates about greater European responsibility for nuclear deterrence, as confidence in U.S. guarantees weakens?